Reversing the drifting solar industry

Currently solar industry participants (particularly those involved in PV) are lined up behind two different viewpoints:

• This is the greatest time in the World for Solar potential development
• This is the worst time for manufacturers of PV technology as failure is the natural outcome

It is time to all line up together behind a common cause – battling entrenched and well-funded (including subsidies) conventional energy and unseating it to become the primary source of electricity globally and make money doing it. Here are a few resolutions:

1. As PV (and other solar technology) manufacturing pioneers continue dropping by the wayside time to STOP saying that this consolidation is healthy and start figuring out how to jump start a healthy recovery
2. In a healthy industry everyone along the value chain needs to maximize utility – this means all players need to make money, save money and be able to justify the sale or purchase.  The time is long past when manufacturers of PV technology can justify losing money on such a massive basis.
3. On the subject of money, the money losses of PV manufacturers are catastrophic and here is the primary reason why this is so – the loss of innovation (meaning low investment in R&D) will slow progress in this industry for the near-term, perhaps even the mid-term, but because of the innovative soul of the solar industry likely not the long-term.
4. Moore’s law (about the doubling of transistors on integrated circuits over a period of time) is not a good match for decreasing costs of PV manufacturing.  PV is an industry filled with researchers, scientists, engineers – innovators all – can’t we come up with our own law? 
5. Whether upstream or downstream, and no matter the location, we are all in this fight together.  Time to join up on a global solar strategy.
6. Cynicism should be out, let pragmatic optimism reign.
7. No more killing off technologies (crystalline in the past, thin films now); there is an application for all solar technologies.
8. Stop looking for the emerging market that will solve the solar industry’s problems either with or without subsidies.  Markets are opening up now because the low price of modules has enabled lower system costs and these same prices are killing off PV (and CPV and CSP) manufacturing.  These same markets will turn bad for system integrators, solar developers and EPC when the PPA and tender bidding becomes too low to support a quality or, profitable installation.
9. Take a look at all the PV manufacturing top ten lists and, as all the manufacturers had negative net incomes in 2012, ask yourself who on earth would want to be on these lists.
10. No more winners and losers, every time a solar participant fails something vital is lost.
11. PV is the best distributed generation technology – take it back to the community and find ways to make this work. The closer solar gets to the community the more involvement is created and the greater the chance of a grass roots movement building momentum.
12. Financing (zero or low interest) remains the biggest roadblock to residential DG PV growth and the solar lease is not a panacea to this – let’s find a way for potential solar system customers (whether or not they rent their home) to afford PV system ownership – this means engaging landlords and other stakeholders. 
13. There are no winners in trade wars and no country is a 100% good actor in terms of winning unfair industry battles. 
14. It is currently in vogue to admit that conventional industry has unfair subsidies while also throwing up our collective and figurative hands and stating that there is nothing we can do about it – sure there is, and there is safety in numbers. Let’s get together as a whole and fight.

Extract from Renewable Energy News by Paula Mints

On the road to large-scale Grid integration

The increasing role played by variable Renewable Energy Sources (or RES) , including PV, in Europe’s electricity system presents challenges for grid operators. However, in many ways, PV is already providing solutions – meeting a growing share of electricity demand at increasingly competitive cost without creating undue strain on the power system.

Even though it is not by nature dispatchable, PV electricity is decentralised and can be produced close to where it is consumed. Furthermore, it has a strong seasonal match with wind (since PV is able to meet more peak demand in summer, while wind is more productive in winter) and an average daily match (since PV produces during the day with a peak around midday, while wind produces more during less sunny hours); these two energy sources together can provide up to 45% of Europe’s electricity needs in 2030. 
These solutions are achievable, especially when combined with tools to increase the flexibility of the electricity system – such as storage and demand side management.

Europe’s electricity demand is increasing. In the context of Europe’s decarbonisation goals, this power will have to come from more variable RES. As European policymakers consider their options for invesments in new and more efficient grid infrastructure, they should take into account the benefits that PV is already producing and, more importantly, plan for the greater benefits it is capable of producing in the future.

In that way, PV can deliver on its promise as a major contributor to meeting Europe’s energy, environmental and economic goals for the coming decades. 

Source: EPIA Final Report 2012

Characteristics and extent of litter-dropping

This paper is an extract of a study made in Switzerland that I found very useful in the European context.

A considerable amount of waste is left lying on the ground in public spaces instead of being disposed of in waste bins. The reasons for this litter-dropping are neither the refuse bag charge nor the lack of waste bins, but a change in consumer behaviour. Fast-food packaging, free newspapers and cigarettes are the main constituents of the litter.

Causes of Litter-dropping.

The study came to the following conclusion:

• The cause of the phenomenon is probably the changed consumer behaviour of the population and in particular the increase in «fast food»: waste from take-away meals such as drinks cans, glass or PET bottles and food packaging made of cardboard, paper and plastic make up  52% of the waste left lying on the ground.
• The particular site is also significant: picnic and recreation areas are more seriously affected by litter than transit areas.
• The reasons for litter-dropping are neither a lack of nor overflowing waste bins, because waste is also thrown away next to half-full waste bins and at sites where plenty of disposal facilities are provided.
• Since household waste is not found on the street the introduction of the refuse bag charge cannot be a reason for the increase in litter either. Moreover, the problem also occurs in cities that do not have a refuse bag charge

Potential solutions

The litter-dropping problem is primarily restricted to city centres. This requires targeted actions at a local level yet on the other hand it makes it difficult to carry out national measures. In Switzerland various combinations of measures adapted to the local circumstances are being pursued.

• Information and awareness-raising campaign
• Information and education
• Code of behaviour for the retail sector and specimen contract for free newspapers
• Financial incentives for consumers
• Sanctions

Will we be able to power 100% of the planet with Renewable Energy by 2050?

A Stanford research team believes that we could power the planet entirely with renewable energy by 2050--if we mandate that all new energy production plants use renewable energy by 2030 and convert existing plants by 2050.

In this happy-go-lucky prediction all new energy production plants use renewable energy by 2030, and then converting older existing plants by 2050. In the new world order, almost everything would run off electricity. Ninety percent of the production would come from windmills and solar energy plants (already very well established technologies) and the remaining 10% would come from hydroelectric power, geothermal, and wave/tidal power. Mobile things--cars, trains, ships and such--would run on hydrogen-powered fuel cells, and aircraft would burn hydrogen fuel. The hydrogen itself would come from green-electric generation processes.

The only minor problem is somehow beating back the fossil fuel industry to a point of nonexistence. Existing businesses who rely on coal, oil, gas (and their byproducts, like the airline industry's need for aviation fuel) are reluctant to develop radical revolutionary innovations towards this objective as our World is driven by Inertia. We're all used to the current way of things and a large scale transformation on a “global scale” coupled with powerful lobbying drops all necessary motivation to make this dream come true… but we can always keep dreaming and we will check back in 2050!

Solar Energy is at prehistoric stage and has a bright future

The sun deposits approximately 1,368 watts of energy per square meter of space, but only one fourth of this power is retained by the Earth’s atmosphere.
The main problem with the use of solar energy has always been the difficulty in efficiently converting the sunbeams into sufficient energy to power up homes, buildings and businesses and the existing technology can be considered to be at prehistoric stage even when there has been so much progress made. In fact, green energy scientists are constantly exploring for ways to increase solar energy efficiency and to tap on the advantages of solar energy but there is still a vast universe to explore and find the technology adapted to our needs which are becoming very demanding.
I would not be surprised to hear in a near future that a bright young talent discovered an extremely simple highly efficient solution...where nobody was searching before. Just remember Edison, Bell and so many others...

What is expected from Solar Energy on 2012 ?

The Renewable Energy industry will certainly continue to be driven by large-scale rooftop and ground-mounted developments. But PV has what other mainstream renewable technologies lack — the ability to invite itself into our living rooms and our back pockets. Solar has always had a technological following, but the industry is increasingly looking to make a direct connection through the products we use.
There have been steady gains made with solar technology powering everything from computers to electric vehicles. These partnerships are still relatively new and they have yet to hit shelves or showrooms in any significant way. But consumers are waiting. A recent survey found that nine out of 10 Americans want more solar energy and industry leaders are hoping this can be the year solar makes a splash on Main Street.
(source: Renewable Energy World)

Solar Photovoltaic Energy competitiveness with Grid

PV electricity is cheaper than many people think. In the coming years the technology will become even more cost-effective and competitive — and qualify therefore as a vital part of Europe’s energy future. Under the right policy and market conditions, PV competitiveness with grid electricity can be achieved in some markets as early as 2013, and then spread across the continent in the different market segments by 2020.

Over the last 20 years, PV has already shown impressive price reductions, with the price of PV modules decreasing by over 20% every time the cumulative sold volume of PV modules has doubled. System prices have declined accordingly; during the last 5 years a price decrease of 50% has been achieved in Europe. System prices are expected to decrease in the 10 coming years by 36-51% depending on the segment. Importantly, there is a huge potential for further generation cost decline: around 50% until 2020. The cost of PV electricity generation in Europe could decrease from a range of 0.16-0.35 Euros/kWh in 2010 to a range of 0.08-0.18 Euros/kWh in 2020 depending on system size and irradiance level.

(Source: www.epia.org)